El Niño is expected to strengthen rapidly and could reach very strong levels in the coming months, while heavy rain, extreme heat, and other severe weather events are likely to remain unpredictable in Vietnam.
Nguyen Duc Hoa, deputy head of the Climate Forecasting Division at the National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecasting, said weather conditions from June to mid-August were highly variable, with widespread heat, thunderstorms, whirlwinds, lightning, and hail, as well as tropical storms and depressions.
El Niño probability
From September to November, El Niño is forecast to remain strong to very strong with a 100% probability, including a 93% chance of reaching very strong intensity, VietNamNet Global news site reported, citing the weather agency.
For October to December, the likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions is forecast at 95%.
From December 2026 to February 2027, there remains a 93% probability that El Niño will continue at strong to very strong levels.
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Temperature forecasts
The weather agency forecasts nationwide average temperatures in September to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.
Temperatures in October and November are expected to remain one to two degrees above average, with some areas potentially recording larger deviations.
From December 2026 to February 2027, temperatures are forecast to stay 0.5-1.5 degrees above average nationwide.
The Central Highlands and the Southern region could see anomalies of 1.5 to two degrees.
Cold-air activity is also expected to be weaker than normal, the weather agency said.
In December 2026 and January 2027, severe cold spells could occur later than usual, while the total number of cold days is expected to remain below the long-term average.
However, the forecast does not mean Vietnam will have a uniformly warm winter.
Strong cold-air outbreaks could still bring severe cold, frost, or ice, potentially affecting public health and agricultural production.
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