By Hyacinth Estrada
On May 12, 2025, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) announced its permanent dissolution following a call from its founder, Abdullah Ocalan, for disbandment and disarmament.
Designated as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the United States, and the European Union, the PKK had been involved in a full-scale insurgency against the Turkish government since 1984.
The move was branded by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a “positive step” towards a “terror-free Turkiye”.
It was also welcomed by the United Nations as “another important step towards the peaceful resolution of a long-standing conflict”.
Likewise, political analysts see the move as a gateway to an improved United States–Turkey relationship.
Despite the political fanfare surrounding the Kurdish left’s dissolution, many experts have cautioned of an impending “power vacuum” that could further polarise Turkey’s already highly-divided political arena.
Opposition as the state’s ‘new greatest enemy’
The move poses a challenge for Turkey’s main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Speaking at an interview with German news organisation Deutsche Welle, Istanbul Political Research Institute co-director Seren Selvin Korkmaz said that the PKK’s dissolution could impact Turkey’s politics for the next three years, leading up to the next presidential elections.
“The political equations we were talking about a year ago are today completely different. Parties will have to adapt their programmes and their discourse,” Korkmaz told DW News.
It also puts into the spotlight the legal situation of jailed Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, the opposition party’s projected candidate for the 2028 presidential elections, the political analyst added.
According to Korkmaz, with the PKK gone, the CHP can now be classified as the government’s new “greatest enemy”.
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New era for regional policy, military strategy
Israeli media reports have noted the potential harm that the Kurdish left’s ceasefire with Turkey could cause to its regional interests, particularly in Syria.
Tel Aviv analysts project a change in the power dynamic that could challenge Israel’s access to Syrian airspace, the Daily Sabah reported, citing an analysis released earlier by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
According to the report, with Turkey potentially withdrawing its military personnel from northeastern Syria, where most of the Kurdish left reside in the country, Israel will be put in “a difficult position internationally as an occupying power in southern Syria”.
This could force Tel Aviv to re-align its military strategy as its military forces frequently conduct airstrikes against Iranian military assets and Hezbollah operatives via Syrian airspace.
Experts are also putting the spotlight on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, the stronghold of Syrian Kurds in the northern part of the country.
“The more important part is what happens next,” Yusuf Can, an expert in Turkish policy and former analyst at the Wilson Center, told DW News.
“PKK is only one of the organisations within the Kurdish movement in Turkey and beyond Turkey.
“There are also other components of this movement.”
The Turkish government had earlier accused the SDF of being a proxy for the PKK, because it is led by the People’s Protection Unit, which the government deemed as the Syrian branch of the Kurdish party.
This led to repeated conflict between the two forces.
The PKK’s dissolution will likely result in the SDF’s “integration with Damascus”, a political expert told Al Jazeera in an interview.
“For the SDF, it makes it much easier to talk with the government in Damascus and also to de-escalate their relations with Turkey,” Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an Erbil-based Kurdish politics analyst, told the media network.
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What’s next for Turkey?
In the aftermath of Ocalan’s announcement, the Turkish government has said that it will set legal mechanisms with neighbouring countries for a peaceful transition.
“The process will be executed by our state’s relevant bodies in a very sensitive and meticulous way,” Defence Ministry sources told local media on May 15.
It was also reported that Turkey and Iraq will establish “at least three centres” in northern Iraq for the collection of the PKK’s weapons.
At the same time, military forces in the field will conduct land search and scan activities to detect the “destruction of caves, shelters, mines, and hand-made explosives” in the area.
Meanwhile, the Justice Ministry has ruled out Ocalan’s potential release.
Ocalan has been in jail since 1999 for his involvement with the PKK.
He was given a life sentence for violating Article 125 of the Turkish Penal Code, which prohibits the formation of armed organisations in the country.
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