Vietnam expected to enter aged society by 2038, health ministry says

By Diana Mae Y. Cleto

The Ministry of Health has projected that Vietnam will enter the aged population stage by 2038.

Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan said that Vietnam is among the fastest-aging countries in Asia.

The shift from an aging population to an aged population is expected to occur within just 17-20 years – much faster than in many other nations.

There are currently around 16.1 million elderly people in Vietnam, making up about 16% of the total population, VietNamNet reported, citing the National Population Database.

A population is considered “aged” when 14% of the total is 65 years old and above.

Aging indices across localities

The aging index, which represents the number of elderly individuals aged 65 and above per 100 children under the age of 15, has been rising gradually.

It increased from 53.1% in 2021 to 60.2% in 2024.

This number is expected to exceed 100 by 2032, meaning the elderly population would outnumber children.

Regions with the highest aging indices include the Red River Delta and the Mekong Delta, with rates reaching 76.8% and 70.6%, respectively.

On the other hand, the Central Highlands has the lowest rate at 37%.

With an aging index of 100.1%, Ben Tre Province is the only locality where the elderly already outnumber children.

It is followed by Thai Binh Province with 98.6%, Vinh Long Province with 95.1% and Nam Dinh Province with 90.8%.

Capital Ha Noi and most populous Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) have similar aging indices – 65.7% and 65.2%, respectively.

However, experts have noted that HCMC is becoming Vietnam’s fastest-aging locality.

Currently, over 1.3 million of its population, or around 12.5%, are aged 65 and above.

This figure is forecast to increase significantly, with the elderly projected to make up about 20% of the city’s population by 2030.

According to demographic forecasts, no locality had more elderly individuals than children in 2019, but 14 localities are predicted to reach that point by 2029 and 41 localities by 2039.

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Healthy life expectancy remains low

Vietnamese life expectancy has been increasing, reaching 74.7 years in 2024. This is higher than in many countries with similar income levels.

Among Southeast Asian nations, Vietnamese women have the second-longest average lifespan at 77.3 years, while Vietnamese men have the fifth-longest average lifespan at 72.3 years.

However, the healthy life expectancy remains relatively low at 65 years.

On average, Vietnamese people live with health problems for around 10 years.

Deputy Minister of Health Tran Van Thuan said that elderly individuals are facing a dual burden of disease: long-term non-communicable conditions such as heart disease, diabetes, cancer, osteoporosis and dementia, alongside higher risks of declining function, treatment complications, medication dependency and a reduced quality of life.

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