By Angelica Hall
A new, multinational study reveals that the global shipping industry will need to lean heavily on biofuels and synthetic fuels from green hydrogen to meet carbon neutrality targets by 2050.
However, it warns that these cleaner alternatives are unlikely to be cost-competitive with fossil fuels until after 2040.
While biofuels are expected to power near-term decarbonisation, deep-sea and long-range vessels will ultimately depend on next-generation synthetic fuels to complete the transition, according to a report by the Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology.
HVO biofuels, LNG to power transition between 2030, 2040
Over the next 15 to 20 years, biofuels will serve as the primary decarbonisation solution for the merchant shipping sector, the study states.
“Between 2030 and 2040, Europe and North America are expected to see a major shift from fossil fuels to HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil) biofuels, which will serve as the cornerstone of the transition – and to LNG (liquefied natural gas), including its bio-derived form.”
HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) is already available at key ports and offers a degree of cost resilience, while LNG remains economically competitive in the near term, though it will face increasing regulatory penalties from 2040 onward.
According to the study, decarbonising medium- and long-range merchant vessels in the long term will require biofuels from renewable sources and synthetic fuels, while short-range ships can rely on bioenergy solutions.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Global research initiative to measure real-world hydrogen emissions now underway
Global roadmap urges clear investment, long-term planning
The study is the first to be published by a joint industry initiative between energy major Eni, shipbuilder Fincantieri, and classification society Registro Italiano Navale (RINA).
Developed with technical support from Bain & Company, the Sustainable Maritime Transport Outlook offers a comprehensive global roadmap to help the industry align with the International Maritime Organisation’s net-zero target.
“To reach this goal, a clear and realistic roadmap is essential – one that minimises uncertainty and risk for investors while offering practical, economically-viable solutions for the entire industry,” the report notes.
“Addressing this need through a holistic approach, the study provides, for the first time, a global overview of viable decarbonisation options tailored to different vessel segments and regions worldwide. It also integrates volume assessments with a comprehensive analysis of cost implications for shipowners and the investment requirements across the logistics and port infrastructure chain.”
The report combines technical, regional and financial assessments to guide shipowners and investors through the sector’s complex path to decarbonisation.
READ NEXT: IAEA chief discusses ATLAS initiative with Greek shipping authorities
Adam Peaker 
Hyacinth Estrada 
Ian Trinidad