The ever-changing landscape of international diplomacy marked a new strategic shift as two of the Islamic world’s most powerful nations have veered closer in an effort to stem the rising tide of unpredictability in Middle East affairs.
America’s reluctance to check Israel’s inclination to shake the security status quo in the Middle East may have spooked some of Washington’s non-NATO allies.
Islamic alliance
Saudi Arabia, where Islam’s holiest cities of Mecca and Medina are located, holds a unique religious authority among Arab and Muslim-dominated countries.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has long prided itself as the only Muslim country with a formidable nuclear weapons capability despite its persistent economic problems that have rendered it incapable of competing in a prolonged war with its regional rival, India.
Last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif put the world on notice as they signed a formal defense pact, which they say reflects the two nations’ “shared commitment” in pursuing regional stability and prosperity.
In a joint statement from Riyadh, both sides claimed that the agreement is aimed at bolstering “joint deterrence against any aggression,” according to the Saudi Press Agency.
“The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both,” it added.
While Riyadh and Islamabad have refused to provide additional details on the nature of their new security partnership, the statement could be hinting at a wider defence network where Pakistan can extend its nuclear umbrella over Saudi Arabia.
A win-win situation
Saudi Arabia’s antagonistic relationship with Iran has dictated its security ties, preferring to work with the United States to counter Tehran’s asymmetrical warfare network in the Middle East.
In a report by Reuters, a senior Saudi official has claimed that the pact with Islamabad has been on the table for years, adding that it was not a “response to specific countries or specific events but an institutionalisation of longstanding and deep cooperation between our two countries.”
However, Israel’s deep air strikes in Qatar, a major US partner and mediator, could have pushed Riyadh to expedite its efforts to look for another security guarantor besides Washington.
Pakistan’s geographical proximity, along with its ideological closeness on religious grounds, makes Islamabad a credible backer for Riyadh’s imminent security objectives.
For Islamabad, the timing could not be better, especially with its armed border skirmishes with India last May in the background, when it unleashed its planes and drones against New Delhi’s military bases.
While the conflict with India highlighted Pakistan’s formidable military, Islamabad’s defence pact with Riyadh could be its strategy to tap into the latter’s vast financial capacity to leverage its potential as a South Asian power.
Riyadh’s oil-backed money, combined with an indigenous nuclear arsenal and Chinese-made weapons, gives Pakistan an unprecedented edge in the region.
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A regional shake-up
This development could be the start of the evolution of Middle East dynamics toward plurality and cooperation instead of rivalry, reducing Western influence over the region’s security affairs.
The defense pact obviously risks a profound impact on other major players and their long-standing ties, especially the United States, Israel, Iran, and even India.
America’s retreat to protectionist policies under President Donald Trump may have contributed to the thinking that even its closest allies must reassess their other security options.
This news, meanwhile, could be unsettling for New Delhi, given that it has failed to decisively prove it is stronger than Pakistan despite the relative success of the “Operation Sindoor.”
According to Kanwal Sibal, a former Indian foreign secretary, Riyadh flexing its muscles so that it can independently chart a different path in the international arena risks it from also inheriting a wary eye from India, its second-largest trading partner.
For other observers, the move could also be interpreted as a way for Riyadh to balance its ties, given that New Delhi has a strong influence in the Saudi economy.
Michael Kugelman, a foreign policy analyst, told BBC that the pact is not necessarily a threat to New Delhi, stating that it will not automatically cause Saudi Arabia to “engage in hostile retaliatory acts against India.”
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