Iran pivots to China in the aftermath of ‘Twelve Day War’

By James Mario Ajero

A major geopolitical recalibration is looming in the Middle East as Iran seeks new, reliable partners after Russia fails to assist Tehran in a shooting war with Israel.

The Israeli-Iranian conflict, meanwhile, opened an opportunity for China to expand its influence in the oil-rich Middle East, home to some of the world’s busiest trade routes.

Operation ‘Rising Lion’

Achieving total air superiority has been a key strategic component for any country aiming to wage war in the modern era.

Since its formation in 1948, Israel has heavily invested in assembling an air force capable of deterring the multitude of Arab nations, including Iran, clamouring for its annihilation.

Israel’s June 13 air strikes (Operation Rising Lion) on key Iranian targets proved that it has not lost touch with its superior air force tradition – crippling Tehran’s military leadership, air defences, and nuclear facilities in just 12 days.

Though Iran fields some of the most capable air defence systems, such as the reputed S-300 surface-to-air missile platform from Russia, they were not enough to shoot down Israel’s more sophisticated fighter jets like the F-35 Lightning II.

Classified as a fifth-generation fighter jet, the F-35 boasts the most modern avionics and stealth technology that allowed it to stage a bombing campaign without being detected by the Iranian radar network.

Iran’s flying coffins

On the other hand, the Iranian Air Force is nowhere comparable to its Israeli counterpart, potentially even one of the weakest in the Middle East.

Iran is reported to have a fleet of F-4 Phantom IIs, F-14 Tomcats, MiG-29 Fulcrums, and F-5E Tiger IIs, all of which are Cold War-era fighter jets that are so obsolete they could not offer any meaningful defence for the Iranian airspace.

These air assets from a bygone era represent a serious flaw in Tehran’s defence posture, underlying a need to quickly modernise in the face of a technologically advanced adversary.

For its part, Tehran’s leadership has made moves finalising a deal to acquire the Russian SU-35 Flankers in 2023.

The Flankers are also capable fighter jets, renowned for their supermanoeuvrability that could take on aerial, ground, and sea-surface targets.

The problem is that Moscow has yet to deliver its promises to Tehran. With its military industry bogged down in Ukraine, Russia’s priorities lie elsewhere, away from Iran’s interests in the region.

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Chinese J-10 ‘Vigorous Dragon’

With Russia seemingly incapable of aiding Iran, Tehran could be turning its gaze eastward – to China, whose growing military exports provide an alternative to American, Russian, and European arms hardware.

Wion News reported that Iran is reigniting interest in the Chinese J-10C fighter jets, a much cheaper alternative to Russian Flankers.

The J-10C is equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar that Israeli F-35s also have.

This 4.5-generation fighter jet can carry a PL-15, an advanced beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile that could lock on targets from long range.

While J-10Cs are not on par with F-35s in terms of overall technology and capabilities, acquiring them is a step forward for Iran to compete in an air-to-air war with Israel.

According to The Moscow Times, Tehran is now at an advanced stage in the procurement of 36 J-10C aircraft as the agreed acquisition of 50 Russian Su-35 meets a serious setback.

What’s in it for China?

Purchasing weapons from an international arms supplier is not a one-stop shop transaction – it’s a serious commitment that could have ramifications for economies, ideologies, security, and geography.

Iran’s pivot to China could be a foreshadowing of a major shift in geopolitics in the Middle East, one that could make Beijing a major player in the region.

Additionally, J-10Cs potentially seeing combat is a free advertisement to Chinese weapon exports that amount to a little over 5% of the global arms trade.

Perhaps deepening military ties with China could make Iran competent enough for the United States to step up its operations in the Middle East.

This is highly favourable for Beijing, considering that a stronger American presence in the Middle East keeps Washington’s attention away from the Indo-Pacific – a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that, if China played the right way, would bring it closer to getting its most coveted prize: Taiwan.

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