The Federal Republic of Germany enters 2026 confronting a fast-changing international landscape that is testing its foreign relations and long-held assumptions.
From strained ties with the United States to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and deepening economic dependence on China, Berlin is struggling to adapt to a world in which power politics increasingly trump rules, according to a report by Deutsche Welle (DW).
Rules-based order under strain
Historian and political scientist Herfried Muenkler has bluntly described Germany’s core foreign policy dilemma, stating: “The liberal idealism of a rules-based international order has turned out to be an illusion.”
But the German government continues to frame multilateralism and international law as its guiding principles.
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has issued a warning, claiming that China and Russia are trying to change the international system founded on international law.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has gone further, arguing that the challenge no longer comes only from authoritarian states.
“Unfortunately, this also applies to America,” he said, referring to United States President Donald Trump, after a US strategy paper sharply criticised European allies and the EU.
Trump, Greenland and NATO
Transatlantic uncertainty has deepened with Trump’s renewed ambition to acquire Greenland.
In Washington, the White House confirmed the president is weighing options, including military action, to take control of the mineral-rich, self-governing Danish territory.
Denmark has warned that any such move would shatter the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) alliance, as an attack on Greenland would trigger the alliance’s collective defence clause.
For Berlin, the prospect of a NATO crisis driven by US action underscores fears that Washington may itself become a source of instability.
READ MORE: Experts oppose US decision to cut number of recommended vaccines for children
Transatlantic ties, pressure on Europe
Concerns about US disengagement from Europe are growing.
In early December, General Christian Freuding told The Atlantic that direct contact with US counterparts had been “cut off,” calling it a “warning sign” amid fears of Russian aggression against NATO’s eastern flank.
Trump has pushed for a peace deal accommodating many of President Vladimir Putin’s demands, while a late-2025 US security strategy emphasised “strategic stability” with Russia.
“If it comes to the point that the Americans somehow bow out, the pressure on Europeans to be capable of acting and to form a strong counterweight will increase once again,” Henning Hoff of the German Council on Foreign Relations told DW.
Merz has co-ordinated closely with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to shore up support for Kyiv, insisting in London in early December that “no one should doubt support for Ukraine.”
However, tight budgets and waning public backing complicate this stance.
Dependence on China
Germany’s economic exposure to China is another vulnerability.
Reliance on rare earth elements and Chinese technological leadership has weakened Berlin’s leverage.
Merz plans to visit China in early 2026 and has urged Beijing to pressure Moscow to end the war in Ukraine, though a breakthrough is not expected.
YOU MAY BE INTERESTED IN: ‘The Voice of Hind Rajab’ sets record with 23-minute standing ovation at Venice Film Festival
Israel, Gaza and fading mediation
Germany’s relationship with Israel also presents dilemmas.
After the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, and Israel’s subsequent two-year war in Gaza, Merz has balanced historical responsibility with cautious criticism.
While reaffirming Israel’s security as central to bilateral ties, he has stopped short of calling it Germany’s “reason of state” and stated that backing Israel’s security and existence is “to the unchangeable core of our relations.”
Merz continues to support a two-state solution, an approach rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
An uneasy search for partners
As geopolitical weight shifts, Germany is seeking new partners among middle powers such as Brazil, Mexico, and Vietnam, while trying to preserve old alliances.
Some see a revitalisation of German diplomacy, but critics warn it remains too slow.
As Hoff noted, reforms planned for 2026 may come too late, a risky delay in an unforgiving world.
READ NEXT: Iranian leader Khamenei seeks to flee to Russia amid spread of protests, intel reveals
Adam Peaker 
Newsjustnews writers 
Carmela Calling