Vietnam’s birth rate among lowest in Southeast Asia

By Diana Mae Y. Cleto

Vietnam’s birth rate currently sits at 1.91 children per woman, ranking it among the five lowest in Southeast Asia.

The country enjoyed a period of stability at the replacement level of 2.1 from 1999 to 2022 but has seen its birth rate decline rapidly in the past two years.

It is now three consecutive years that the rate has been below the replacement level, raising concerns about long-term demographic and economic effects.

According to the Vietnamese Ministry of Health, economic hub Ho Chi Minh City has the lowest birth rate at 1.39 children per woman, while northeastern Ha Giang Province has the highest at 2.69 children per woman.

Additionally, the number of provinces and cities with rates below the replacement level has jumped from 22 in 2019 to 32 in 2024.

Key reasons behind the low birth rate

Experts attribute the declining birth rate to factors such as financial challenges, work-related stress, career-focused lifestyles, and changing societal norms.

Despite 2024 being the Year of the Dragon, which is believed to be an auspicious year for childbearing in eastern culture, the declining rate implies that cultural beliefs no longer have a significant impact on family-planning decisions.

Even in rural localities where birth rates are traditionally higher due to early marriage and cultural norms, figures have dropped below the replacement level in the past two years.

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Current policies ineffective in reversing declining birth rate

To rectify the problem, various provinces and cities have implemented policies to encourage higher birth rates.

For instance, Ho Chi Minh City offers grants for women under 35 with two children and provides small stipends for prenatal and neonatal check-ups for low-income families.

However, Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong has said that current pro-natalist policies have been ineffective in reversing the declining birth rate.

A continued decline in rates could lead to severe long-term consequences, including a shrinking workforce, accelerated population aging, and weakened economic growth.

In order to prevent further decline, experts recommend introducing practical support policies, including reducing child-rearing costs, providing housing assistance, and promoting positive societal attitudes toward having children.

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