By Elan Castañares
Researchers at the University of Hamburg’s Centre for Earth System Research and Sustainability are using artificial intelligence (AI) to predict the frequency and intensity of storm surges for coastal cities in the German Bight over the next decade.
Led by Dr Daniel Krieger, the team is combining weather data, a climate computational model and AI to provide highly accurate and fast forecasts, as outlined in a press release by the Hamburg local government.
Enhanced storm surge predictions
The research, focusing on cities like Cuxhaven, Esbjerg and Delfzijl, has demonstrated that the model can make reliable predictions, processing data several hundred times faster than previous methods.
By processing data hundreds of times faster than traditional methods, the AI model can predict storm surge frequency and intensity more reliably.
For example, Cuxhaven has averaged 11.6 storm surges annually over the last decade.
The AI model predicted 12.8 with a slight margin of error.
“Until 2029, the number of 12 storm surges per year will remain quite similar,” said Dr Krieger, a climate modeller.
While the frequency of storm surges is expected to stay consistent, the intensity of extreme floods is predicted to increase.
Historically, the highest annual storm surge in Cuxhaven reached an average of 2.5 metres, but the model forecasts an average surge height of 3 metres in the next five years.
This highlights an elevated risk to coastal cities and their infrastructure.
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The role of AI in coastal protection
The AI-powered forecasting system is expected to play a crucial role in coastal protection, especially in planning dyke construction and safeguarding vital port infrastructure.
As sea levels rise and climate patterns fluctuate, the data produced by this model will be essential for preparing cities for future challenges.
Dr Krieger noted that higher storm surges may become more frequent as these fluctuations subside, emphasising the need for proactive protective measures.
Traditional climate models have struggled to predict the direct impact of storm surges due to low resolution.
In contrast, this new model uses decades of hourly water level data collected from cities around the North Sea.
These detailed measurements allow for highly localised forecasts that are generated in seconds, enabling real-time decision-making.
Long-term implications for coastal cities
Looking toward the future, these AI-based forecasts will offer valuable insights for urban planning and climate adaptation strategies.
City planners, policymakers and emergency response teams can use these predictions to prepare for evolving storm surge patterns.
The model will be key in ensuring coastal cities remain resilient in the face of climate change.
Future directions of AI in climate adaptation
Dr Krieger’s team is continuing to refine the model with plans to expand its application to other regions facing similar climate challenges.
As storm surges become a growing threat to coastal infrastructure, this research represents a promising step toward mitigating the risks posed by extreme weather.
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