Timor-Leste’s ASEAN membership bid nears decision as uncertainty persists

By Elan Castañares

After more than a decade of waiting, Timor-Leste is edging closer to full membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), with hopes high for a decision at the October 2025 summit.

While the young nation has made progress in meeting accession requirements, concerns over its economic readiness and geopolitical alignment continue to delay the unanimous approval.

Malaysia, the current ASEAN chair, has expressed confidence in Timor-Leste joining this year.

Progress made, but questions remain

Timor-Leste’s long pursuit of full membership in the ASEAN is inching closer to a possible conclusion, with Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announcing that the country will be accepted as the bloc’s 11th member at the October 2025 summit.

Since ASEAN granted observer status to Timor-Leste in 2022 and endorsed its membership “in principle,” Dili has made substantial progress on the roadmap to accession.

Capacity-building programmes led by the ASEAN Secretariat and Asian Development Bank have trained over 80 Timorese officials on ASEAN economic frameworks and integration requirements, the ASEAN Secretariat stated in its official website.

However, Dili still needs to implement 66 of the 84 legal instruments under ASEAN’s economic pillar, raising concerns that full accession may still be delayed, The Diplomat reported.

Economic, institutional hurdles

The main concern of ASEAN’s hesitation lies in the country’s structural discrepancy.

The East Asia Forum reported that Timor-Leste’s 2023 gross domestic product of $2.1 billion is dwarfed by that of Laos which has $15.8 billion, currently the bloc’s smallest economy. 

With over 42 per cent of its population living below the national poverty line and widespread dependence on oil revenues, Timor-Leste’s economic diversification remains limited.

These gaps have long fuelled doubts among member states about Dili’s readiness to participate meaningfully in ASEAN’s Economic Community.

Meanwhile, the country’s private sector is underdeveloped, infrastructure remains rudimentary and skilled labour is scarce.

While integration could facilitate experience-sharing and attract investment, the process of aligning domestic legislation with ASEAN standards will take time.

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Geopolitical dynamics, diplomatic friction

Beyond economics, geopolitics have further complicated the accession process.

Timor-Leste’s Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with China, signed in 2023, has sparked quiet concerns over its geopolitical orientation in an increasingly polarised region.

The return of President Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 has also intensified regional re-alignments, with ASEAN seeking strategic balance amid growing competition between the US and China.

Toward an October decision

Despite these issues, Malaysia, as the ASEAN chair, has strongly backed Timor-Leste’s inclusion.

Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan confirmed that ASEAN leaders are expected to finalise their domestic legal procedures by the 47th ASEAN Summit in October.

The Philippines has also re-affirmed its support for Dili’s accession in May, according to PhiStar Global.

“We also committed to supporting Timor-Leste’s accession process and contributing to Asean Community Vision 2045 implementation,” said incoming Philippines Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro.

Meanwhile, countries such as Indonesia, Cambodia and Thailand are vocal supporters, according to the Bangkok Post.

However, ASEAN’s consensus-based model means even a single member’s objections can stall the process.

If admitted, Timor-Leste will be ASEAN’s newest and least-developed member, widening the economic gap within the regional bloc.

As the ASEAN faces challenges of relevance and reform, admitting Timor-Leste could signal its commitment to inclusivity and regional cohesion.

The current members of the ASEAN are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

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