By James Mario Ajero
Ukraine’s audacious but clandestine raid on Russian strategic bombers in Siberia wasn’t just a strike but a flex.
David vs Goliath
Since Russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine in 2022, the latter has been pushed to a corner with about 20 percent of its eastern territories annexed or under the control of Moscow.
However, what was initially expected to be a one-sided military conflict in favor of Russia became a war of attrition of sorts in a reminiscence of the static warfare in the First World War.
Three years into the war, Russia still enjoyed a superior military-industrial complex. The Ukrainian military, meanwhile, resorted to unconventional tactics to equalise the odds, birthing a new kind of warfare in the form of cheap, small, and remotely operated drones.
Russia’s Pearl Harbor?
One of the crowning achievements of the former Soviet Union was its matured strategic aviation that allowed it to challenge the United States for global hegemony at the height of the Cold War.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia inherited much of its armaments, including its nuclear triad – a three-pronged military deterrence composed of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic bombers capable of delivering nuclear-tipped payloads.
Last Sunday (June 1), Ukraine’s Security Service reported that it had destroyed 40 of Russia’s strategic bombers located as deep as Siberia.
The daring attack inflicted heavy material defeat on Russia with sources claiming that Moscow lost by as much as $7,6 billion.
The destroyed planes include 18 Tu-95 Bear long-range strategic bombers (valued at $250 million each), 7 Tu-22M3 Backfire supersonic bombers ($350 million each), and 2 A-50 Mainstay AEWC aircraft (also $350 million each).
The loss of Tu-95s and A-50s was noteworthy, considering that the Bears were legacy bombers of the Soviet Union. Russia may not be able to reproduce them in the foreseeable future since the production lines manufacturing these bombers have been closed.
Meanwhile, the destruction of the Mainstays also reduces the Russian military’s capability to detect hostile aircraft, ships, and missiles.
Overall, Russia is reported to have lost 33 percent of its strategic aviation assets, weakening one of the vital components of its nuclear triad.
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“Operation Web”
The drone operation, codenamed “Web”, was planned by the Ukrainian military for one and a half years, according to Inquirer.net.
It is reported that the Ukrainian military used 117 to 160 drones – each costing $1,000 – alongside trucks to carry them near the targets.
This method of asymmetric warfare is a chilling message to Russia: Ukraine can now strike anywhere in the country.
When weighed against the losses of Russia, this low-cost operation was a resounding success for Ukraine.
“No more range restrictions”
While Ukraine should be praised for its valiant efforts in resisting the invasion, it has to be said that both the United States and Western Europe played key roles in ensuring its survival in more than three years of fighting.
“Operation Web” may have been on the table for one and a half years, but the timing could not be better for Ukraine, especially after the announcements made by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz six days before the strike.
In a live broadcast at the 27th annual WDR Europaforum, Merz said that Germany, Britain, France, and the United States are removing the offensive restrictions imposed on Ukraine, essentially allowing the latter to conduct long-range strikes against Russia.
Since his return to the White House in January this year, US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the Ukraine-Russia conflict was “peace through strength”, repeatedly reaffirming his intention to end the war.
It remains to be seen, however, how Russia will respond to the attack that not only damaged its capability to pursue its present military objectives but also its global prestige as a regional power.
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