The Great Barrier Reef in Australia is the world’s largest coral reef system, which is well-known for its beauty, vast variety of marine life and particularly for its colourful looks. Unfortunately, it is no longer as colourful as it once was due to many mass bleaching events it has suffered in recent years because of global warming and a rise in sea temperatures.
According to scientists, the future of the Great Barrier Reef does not look good – they predict more bleaching events with more of the biodiverse life at Australia’s north-east coast suffering or even dying by the end of 2050. However, according to a recent study there may be a tiny ray of hope: if the average temperature of global warming is kept below 2 degrees, the coral reef may partially recover.
Study offers deeper insight and some hope
At the University of Queensland in Australia, researchers have been working on a new study and have developed a model which allows them to simulate the lifecycles of different species of corals. The results have been fascinating – some of the species are better at adapting to warmer water than others. This means that, in theory, due to their resilience to the slightly higher temperatures, it could potentially help new coral growth.
But the researchers stress the fact that, for that to happen, carbon emissions need to be kept in check. Otherwise, it could very likely lead to a “near collapse” of the reef.
The research was led by Dr Yves-Marie Bozec who explained that the model that has been developed for the purpose of this study has looked at the “eco-evolutionary dynamics” of the Great Barrier Reef’s corals, which includes the interaction between them and the way they deal with warmer water.
It also looked at corals which naturally occur in cooler areas, in depth. He said: “We ran all of those factors with the most up-to-date climate projections – and the news was not good. We forecast a rapid coral decline before the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.”
He says that it is possible that certain parts of the reef “may partially recover after 2050, but only if ocean warming is sufficiently slow to allow natural adaptation to keep pace with temperature changes”.
He added: “Adaptation may keep pace if global warming does not exceed two degrees by 2100. For that to happen, more action is needed globally to reduce carbon emissions which are driving climate change.” He also believes that “the window for meaningful action is closing rapidly but it hasn’t shut”.
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Paris agreement may help to reach the goal
In 2015, close to 200 nations signed a document promising to try to limit the rise of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius higher from those recorded in pre-industrial times.
Signing the agreement came with a variety of commitments to ensure that this goal could be reached. It asked to achieve a balance between greenhouse gases that are being put into the atmosphere by humanity and the gases that nations will actively remove. This is known as net zero.
Every country was expected to set its own targets to reduce emissions, which are to be reviewed every five years and adapted in a way which increases ambitions but also are reasonable.
In addition to that, richer countries pledged to help poorer nations to achieve the goals by providing “climate finance”, meaning they would help assist with funding, so that those countries can also reach set targets and switch to renewable energy where possible.
This agreement came into force in November 2016.
Peter Mumby, a professor who also worked on the study on coral reefs said that according to their research “many reefs could persist under the Paris agreement target of two degrees of warming. However, higher emissions leading to faster temperature rises would drive reefs to a near collapse”.
What can we expect as Cop30 gets underway?
Ahead of the Cop30 meeting, an annual climate summit where world leaders, scientists, NGOs and other stakeholders come together to discuss the future of the planet, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres stated that overshooting the original target now is “inevitable”.
The key sticking point to progress remains the continuing dependence on fossil fuels, responsible for most planet-heating pollution.
Despite the absence from the meeting of some of the world’s biggest emitters – including the United States – some leaders expressed optimism that there was still time to effect significant change.
Speaking to news outlets ahead of the event, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said “it’s not easy” for countries to reduce fossil fuels, but suggested a “roadmap” could be developed at this year’s meeting.
Cop30 runs from November 10 to 21.
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