Despite being at the forefront of mediation in the Palestine conflict, Qatar found itself in a tricky situation after a missile strike by Israel, highlighting the risk of playing both sides in the rapidly changing geopolitical environment in the Middle East.
The Israeli strike, which occurred only months after the Iranian missile attack, could be a catalyst for a new Qatari pivot to seek new partners, away from the United States, which has been the oil-rich nation’s security guarantor for decades.
A mediator nation
Though comparably as rich as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran, Qatar has little political power to offer in the international arena, relegating it to a quiet power in a region crowded by clashing interests between neighbours.
Mediating conflicts, meanwhile, offered a credible path for Doha to make itself indispensable for major players in the Middle East while expanding its strategic horizon.
Since 2012, Qatar has been hosting the Hamas leadership, with the Palestinian organisation’s former leader, Ismael Haniyeh, residing in Doha before he died in 2024.
This led to the establishment of a Hamas office in Qatar, where Washington can freely communicate with the organisation – a better option, considering the alternative of having to go through Hamas’ primary backer, Iran.
Doha was also among the most vocal supporters of Hamas in Palestine, as this position aligns with the ideological sensibilities of Qataris, who are predominantly Sunni Muslims.
In the wake of Hamas and Israeli skirmishes following the attack on October 7, 2023, Doha negotiated a ceasefire deal between the two sides that led to the release of 100 Israeli hostages.
Qatar tried to broker additional peace agreements to no avail, as both Hamas and Israel expressed no intention to enter into a compromise in good faith.
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A surprise Israeli strike
Qatar was in the middle of working on another peace negotiation when Israel’s F-35s launched missile ordinances in Doha on September 7, with the intention to decapitate what remained in the Hamas leadership.
Al Jazeera reported that Khalil al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin were the targets of Israel’s “precise” strikes, with both individuals surviving the incident.
Both men were also serving as high-ranking officials of Hamas, with al-Hayya identified as the organisation’s chief negotiator.
Doha confirmed that a Qatari Internal Security Force member died in the incident, condemning the attack as an act of “state terrorism”.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani also told a press conference last week that the country will adopt a “comprehensive” action against Israel, vowing that it will not tolerate damage to its sovereignty.
Washington an ‘accomplice’?
Meanwhile, the extent of the United States’ involvement in the incident became a subject of scrutiny, with Hamas claiming that Washington was an “accomplice” in the strike.
According to the White House, it tried to warn Qatar of the impending attack upon detecting the missiles headed for Doha.
In a post on X, Qatar’s Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Majed Al-Ansari denied that they were tipped off about Israel’s missile strike.
“The statements being circulated about Qatar being informed of the attack in advance are baseless,” it said.
The Trump administration said the president had no time to prevent the escalation, as he was not informed by Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of its attack on Qatar.
In addition, US President Donald Trump urged Israel to be very careful next time, stating that “Qatar has been a great ally to the United States.”
The price of mediation
Months before the Israeli strike, Qatar also absorbed a measured missile attack from Iran, when the latter targeted the Al Udeid Air base, the largest military installation of Washington in the Middle East.
However, the Israeli attack showed not only Netanyahu’s predisposition to cross red lines to eliminate anything he deems a threat, but also the brittleness of America’s security umbrella for Qatar.
This could be an opportunity for Doha and other US allies like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE to rethink their strategic approach to the situation to avoid another incident.
The options for Qatar are to seek another security partner, like Turkey, or to put pressure on the US to impose stricter control on Israel.
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Geoffrey H. Latayan 
Vivien Bernardino