Brazil has recorded a significant decline in deforestation and forest fires, a development expected to boost leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s re-election bid ahead of October’s election.
Satellite data published by Brazil’s National Space Agency (INPE) showed that a total of 1,295 square kilometres (500 square miles) of deforestation was recorded in the Amazon, representing a 38 per cent decline from the 2,090 square kilometres recorded between January and June 2025.
INPE added that the figure marked the lowest level of deforestation recorded in the Amazon in the past decade, as cited by Mongabay News.
Similarly, the total area burned in the world’s largest rainforest fell from 15.8 million hectares in 2024 to a record-low 3.1 million hectares in 2025, according to deforestation monitoring group MapBiomas.
MapBiomas noted that the land burned in the Amazon in 2025 covered the smallest area since the group began keeping records in 1985, BBC reported.
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE: Southeast Asia to expect stronger El Niño from August to October, says ASMC
Environmentalists credit Lula’s political will
Ane Alencar, science director at the Amazon Environmental Research Institute (IPAM), attributed the sharp decline in the country’s deforestation and wildfire rates to the Lula-led government’s political will and tougher environmental laws.
Under Lula’s leadership, the government strengthened satellite surveillance, expanded protections for Indigenous lands and tightened environmental enforcement to safeguard the Amazon.
“This shows that the political will to fight deforestation has prevailed. From a scientific standpoint, this is evidence that deforestation is not an inevitable process and its reduction is responsive to decisions made by society and the government,” Alencar said in a statement.
Other experts also said cooler La Niña conditions partly contributed to the decline in forest fires in 2025 compared with the previous year.
‘Super’ El Niño threat looms
However, environmentalists and experts warned that the improvement does not mean the Amazon is fully protected, as forecasts of a “super” El Niño in the second half of 2026 may increase the risk of drought and forest fires.
Environmentalists emphasised that the combination of higher temperatures and lower rainfall could cause small fires to spread more aggressively, calling it a recipe for an “environmental disaster.”
Vera Arruda, a researcher at IPAM and co-ordinator at MapBiomas, called on the government not to be complacent and to continue strengthening preventative efforts despite the notable drop in forest fires.
“The 31 per cent drop compared to the historical average – driven primarily by the lowest number of fires recorded in the Amazon in 41 years – is positive news, but it does not yet allow us to conclude that this is an established trend or to scale back prevention efforts,” Arruda told BBC.
In response, the government increased funding for fire management in 2026 to BRL1.023 billion (USD197 million), up 28 per cent from the previous year, to strengthen the country’s fire response.
The environment ministry also increased the number of federal firefighters to 4,410 this year from 4,358 in 2025.
One step closer to Lula’s electoral pledge
The sharp decline in deforestation and forest fires, along with the government’s efforts to protect the Amazon, brings Lula one step closer to fulfilling a key campaign pledge he made after being elected president in 2022.
During his speech at COP27, Lula vowed that Brazil would remain committed to building a “healthier planet” by reversing the deforestation that occurred during the tenure of his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro.
“There is no planetary security without a protected Amazon. We will do whatever it takes to have zero deforestation and degradations of our biomes,” he said, as quoted by The Guardian.
“For this reason, I would like to announce that efforts to fight climate change will have the highest priority in my next government. We will prioritise the fight against deforestation of our biomes and reverse the damage done in recent years by the previous government,” he added.
READ MORE: Brazilian opposition party vows to block Lula’s re-election bid after Carnival tribute
A much-needed boost for fourth term bid
Analysts said the achievements could provide a much-needed boost to the 80-year-old’s campaign for a fourth term in October’s election, in which he faces Bolsonaro’s son.
The gains come as a recent survey commissioned by Quaest between July 31 and August 3 showed that right-wing candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro had 37 per cent support, narrowing the gap with Lula, who had 45 per cent, Reuters reported.
In a simulated second-round run-off, Lula maintained the lead with 44 per cent support, though Bolsonaro remained close behind at 39 per cent.
Nevertheless, analysts cautioned that the environmental gains alone would not guarantee Lula another term, with many expecting a closely contested race in the pivotal October election.
READ NEXT: Experts warn Google’s new AI satellite tool could fuel disinformation
Newsjustnews writers 
James Mario Ajero