The tourism industry in Sri Lanka is expected to fall well short of the government’s ambitious revenue targets, underscoring the necessity for the sector to shift its focus from visitor numbers to higher-value tourism.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) disclosed that foreign visitor spending in Sri Lanka is expected to reach $6.46 billion by 2036, which is $3.54 billion less than the government’s target of $10 billion in tourism revenue and five million visitors by 2030.
According to the WTTC’s long-term projections, visitor spending is expected to increase from $3.73 billion in 2025 to $4.49 billion in 2026 and $6.46 billion by 2036.
At the projected growth rate, Sri Lanka may not reach the $10 billion threshold until around 2045, as reported by Daily Mirror.
Challenge already evident right now
In 2026, the difficulty is already apparent.
According to data from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, tourism earnings dropped 11.5 percent year over year to $1.79 billion in the first seven months.
To reach the updated yearly goal of $4.2 billion, the industry would need to make about $480 million a month for the next five months.
Instead of depending solely on arrival volumes, industry analysts contend that Sri Lanka should prioritise higher-yield visitors.
The country is still expected to lag behind the Maldives and Cambodia, which are predicted to generate $7.31 billion and $9.39 billion by 2036, respectively, even though visitor spending is expected to increase by 73 percent between 2025 and 2036.
Nonetheless, tourism continues to make a significant overall contribution to Sri Lanka’s economy.
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WTTC’s expectations
According to WTTC, the sector’s share of the national GDP will increase to 10.3 percent by 2036, from $9.92 billion in 2025 to $16.62 billion.
Gloria Guevara, president and CEO of WTTC, stated that enhancing connectivity, investment, workforce development, and public-private collaboration will be essential to realising the potential of tourism.
Additionally, employment in Sri Lanka’s travel and tourism sector is expected to grow from 991,000 in 2025 to 1.52 million by 2036, highlighting the sector’s increasing significance to the country’s overall economy.
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